Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 1.221519 1.292999 1.367363 1.450673 1.541614 1.638102 1.748520
2026-01-25 1.127173 1.230158 1.342249 1.474012 1.625563 1.795514 2.002078
2026-02-01 1.037796 1.155082 1.286546 1.446117 1.636346 1.858163 2.139848
2026-02-08 0.962745 1.087404 1.230264 1.407991 1.625884 1.888004 2.233036
2026-02-15 0.914470 1.046207 1.200149 1.395912 1.642089 1.946873 2.361859
2026-02-22 0.880534 1.019109 1.183932 1.397810 1.673215 2.023620 2.516599
2026-03-01 0.839881 0.981147 1.151595 1.376454 1.671737 2.056151 2.612348
2026-03-08 0.796393 0.937361 1.109432 1.339522 1.646617 2.054157 2.658031
2026-03-15 0.768874 0.912089 1.089041 1.329060 1.654996 2.096594 2.768230
2026-03-22 0.757108 0.905955 1.092367 1.349299 1.705117 2.198813 2.972927
2026-03-29 0.737838 0.889222 1.080940 1.348738 1.725790 2.259686 3.119282
2026-04-05 0.724629 0.879667 1.078264 1.359512 1.762366 2.345122 3.310311
2026-04-12 0.706290 0.863363 1.066777 1.358696 1.783905 2.412114 3.482552
2026-04-19 0.697186 0.858939 1.071028 1.380061 1.839018 2.534076 3.759287
2026-04-26 0.672082 0.832106 1.043581 1.354717 1.822594 2.542656 3.840721
2026-05-03 0.645308 0.802146 1.010729 1.320039 1.789943 2.522798 3.868909
2026-05-10 0.628212 0.784789 0.994686 1.309045 1.792838 2.560275 4.004501
2026-05-17 0.616363 0.774189 0.987612 1.310773 1.815323 2.631114 4.209418
2026-05-24 0.598340 0.754498 0.966998 1.291325 1.803048 2.642165 4.299540
2026-05-31 0.576716 0.729234 0.937700 1.257663 1.766286 2.608762 4.297849
2026-06-07 0.563667 0.715607 0.924634 1.248119 1.768056 2.642291 4.434984
2026-06-14 0.559795 0.714716 0.929801 1.266577 1.816482 2.761331 4.763844
2026-06-21 0.550478 0.705822 0.922989 1.266066 1.833082 2.823817 4.978987